In other words, the USD warrants are currently trading at about 55% of their theoretical value.

Aus Bulltick vom 28.06.12:

"Also, as we argued in our last monthly publication, we continue to think that Argentina GDP warrants remain a very attractive buy. Despite all the negative pieces of news that have plagued the markets in the past couple of quarters, and despite the material increase that has taken place in Argentine USD-denominated interest rates following the nationalization of YPF, our GDP warrants valuation model does show that there is very significant upside potential in prices from current levels. According to the output delivered by our in-house valuation model (based on 240+ stochastic growth paths going from 2013 to 2035), the current theoretical price of the USD warrants should be around USD $18, assuiming that the interest rate of the USD-denominated Par Bonds stabilize at around 13% going forward, and even if Argentina grows only 2% in 2012 (i.e. below the growth payment threshold of these instruments). In other words, the USD warrants are currently trading at about 55% of their theoretical value.

According to our models, if the Argentine economy were to grow +2% y/y in 2012 (based on INDEC's number), and 4.5% y/y in 2013 (keep in mind that Argentina's historical economic growth standard deviation stands at 6%, so it is logical to expect an upward move on growth in 2013 if the world does not collapse), the payment for fiscal year 2013, which will be payable in December of 2014, could feasibly come at USD $7 (assumes that the official USDARS trades at $5.7/USD by the end of 2013). Bottomline: an investor that holds a USD Warrant at this time, and holds it ex-post December 2014, will receive total cash amounting to USD $13.4 plus an optionality to receive an additional USD $23 in dividends from 2015 until 2035. The current price of the USD Warrant stands at $9.9."