he hearing called in Griesa’s courtroom was suspended, it would seem, because the parties are “talking”; the plaintiffs would accept a haircut on the debt they demand

NY Legal Developments:

 

La Nacion: “The "vulture funds” want to negotiate an agreement with the government to collect” by Martín Kanenguiser and Rafael Mathus Ruiz

The hearing called in Griesa’s courtroom was suspended, it would seem, because the parties are “talking”; the plaintiffs would accept a haircut on the debt they demand  

 

Clarin: “Debt: Griesa cancels hearing to analyst Argentina’s strategy” by Ana Baron

Yesterday it was to be discussed in his courtroom if the proposal to change jurisdiction of the bonds violated his sentence.

 

Ambito Financiero: “Griesa postpones hearing”  

 

 

International Pressure:

 

Ambito Financiero: “Vulture funds Cristina seeks support in the G-20”

• Travels to St Petersburg next week  

• Will try for contact with Obama  

 

 

Analysts/Markets:

 

La Nacion: “Warnings that less investments will come"  

 

El Cronista: “Estimates that with the new swap the restructured debt will be 95% of the total” ESTEBAN RAFELE Buenos Aires

Papers in default will come in by up to US$2 billion. The prices on unpaid bonds rose 23% yesterday over the deal to buy them to enter the restructuring

 

El Cronista: “There are some US$13 billion with foreign law”

 

El Cronista: “By the swap of jurisdiction, bonds would be taken down from the EMBI index”  

 

El Cronista: “Argentine bonds in default jump: swap opens possibility to gain 26%”

It is over the expectation that is generated by a new reopening of the exchange.  It is a very speculative bet and with illiquid bonds.  But there are those who decided to buy.  

 

Clarin: “For the banks, the value of the offer to swap will be insufficient”

It would offer 50 cents on the dollars and that would not attract the vultures.  The government is prioritizing the will to pay for an elevated participation.  

 

El Cronista: “Holdout fight: investors see a 70% likelihood that there will be a default after the swap” VERONICA DALTO

The market is operating with two key fears: that the stay will be lifted and a technical default will come and during the change of jurisdiction pressured sales of bonds will collapse prices.  But they give less than 20% probability that the change of legislation will not be able to happen.  They give only 2% chances of a scenario where the stay is maintained and the Supreme Court takes Argentina’s case.

 

 

 

Op-eds/Columnists:

 

La Nacion: “The grandstand is not the court” by Hernán Lacunza 

 

Clarin: “Without credibility, shadows gather on the external front” by Marcelo Bonelli

 

El Cronista/WE Supplement: “The swap and the need to take a more balanced path”  

Daniel Marx writes exclusively for WE about the reopening of the debt swap.  He asks for a constructive attitude and to act dispassionately, at the same time proposing a series of questions that the Argentine government should take into account if it is seeking to avoid a traumatic and costly ruling for Argentina