rolf´s argentinien-blog: Juni 2012

Mittwoch, 27. Juni 2012

Argentina has confirmed one thing (thought it was never seriously in doubt): it will pay $3.44bn to the holders of GDP warrants in December.

Argentina: paying up on GDP warrants

June 26, 2012 8:45 pm by Jude Webber

Argentina has confirmed one thing (thought it was never seriously in doubt): it will pay $3.44bn to the holders of GDP warrants in December.
That’s because the GDP warrant payment is linked to the previous year’s growth, and in 2011 it was 8.9 per cent, though it is running downhill fast – putting next year’s payment in doubt (but that’s another story).
Cristina Fernández, will have soothed investors by saying in a televised speech that she would pay what is owed in dollars back in dollars, and she said the government would pay using central bank reserves.
In fact, Argentina is planning a debt-cancelling spree using reserves, and plans to pay off the $2.18bn due this year to international financial organisations in full, according to a decree published in the official gazette. Part of the funding will come from just over $95m earmarked for debt payments but not used in 2011.
The payment is part of the government’s policy of paying down foreign debt, but it will of course boost intra-public sector debt since the Treasury will issue debt to the Central Bank up to a maximum $2.08bn to cover the funds.
Related reading:Argentina’s growth looms over restructured debt, beyondbrics
Argentina: pressure mounts on the peso, beyondbrics
Argentina: lower growth ahead, beyondbrics

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/06/26/argentina-paying-up-on-gdp-warrants/#axzz1yzuQCfWY

Montag, 25. Juni 2012

Two funds, one controlled by billionaire Kenneth Dart, lost a U.S. Supreme Court bid to collect at least $2 billion owed by the government of Argentina.

Autor: esteban

Datum: Heute, 19:58

Two funds, one controlled by billionaire Kenneth Dart, lost a U.S. Supreme Court bid to collect at least $2 billion owed by the government of Argentina.

The justices today refused to hear an appeal by Dart’s EM Ltd. and NML Capital Ltd., an affiliate of the New York-based hedge fund Elliott Associates LP, in a multi-pronged dispute stemming from Argentina’s 2001 default on $95 billion of bonds.

The funds, which refused to exchange their securities in a 2005 Argentine debt swap, have been seeking to enforce $2 billion in judgments they have won in U.S. court cases.

EM and NML were trying to seize $100 million in Argentine central bank assets being held at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. A federal appeals court said that money is shielded under the U.S. Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.

Dart is president of Mason, Michigan-based Dart Container Corp., the world’s largest maker of foam cups. He gave up his U.S. citizenship in the 1990s to avoid taxes and moved to the Cayman Islands.

U.S. Solicitor General Donald Verrilli, asked by the court for the Obama administration’s views, urged the justices to deny review. The appeals court decision is correct and doesn’t conflict with any other appellate ruling, he wrote.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor didn’t take part in today’s action. She was involved in the litigation over Argentina’s bonds as an appeals court judge.

The case is EM Ltd. v. Republic of Argentina, 11-604.

[Bloomberg]

von einem Freund aus London, der Argy-Insider ist zu den vermehrt auftauchenden Argy-Meldungen, dass sie bestimmte Sachen bezahlen wollen

Rolf,

Apparently they are trying to send a message. I am quite pesimistic and will not buy into this. Probably it is part of a strategy to be better seen by the "US eyes" when the vulture funds are trying to portray an image of a non-collaborative Argentina which is trying to render court orders useless. I hope that you are right.

It was very nice meeting you personally, it was a pity that we did not have the opportunity to do a proper catch up.

Best,

na das sieht ja nicht so gut aus für den kicker.....

As Argentina's economy hits a wall, "compulsive buying of dollars, alongside football, is a national pass-time"

Posted: 24 Jun 2012 06:59 PM PDT

Argentina's economic troubles are getting progressively worse. Labor problems stemming from inflation are putting increasing pressure on the government, whose policies have put it on the defensive abroad and domestically.

WSJ: - The protesters took over the field early Thursday, destroyed crucial equipment and jeopardized the flow of gas to untold numbers of people in Argentina, Pan American had said in a previous statement Friday.

The end of the protest will come as a big relief to both Pan American and Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, who has been struggling to deal with dissatisfied union members across the country.

Rampant inflation has curbed purchasing power, but the Kirchner administration has pressured labor to delay signing agreements to raise wages, angering rank and file union members.

The government is actually threatening independent economists against publishing realistic inflation numbers, which are thought to be dramatically higher than the official 10%. Some estimates are putting it above 25% or even higher. With this rate of devaluation, the mistrust of the peso is now so strong that buying of US dollars has reached a fevered pitch in the streets. Dollar now trades at some 30% premium to the official exchange rate.

AFP: - Argentines are on edge since the government imposed draconian measures to control money changers, measures which have complicated their compulsive buying of dollars which, alongside football, is a national pass-time.

So-called cellars, the few places where US dollars can still be illegally bought, have sprung up in the capital, but the greenback in these places is now sold at a premium -- up to six pesos. The official exchange rate is 4.5.

The vendors lining Florida street in the city center are constantly at risk of being caught by policemen, who have dogs trained to sniff out dollars.
...
Dollar fever rose when President Cristina Kirchner opted to impose radical controls on currency exchanges and curb imports to protect $46 billion in reserves and a $10-billion trade surplus.

This uncertainty is damaging domestic investment, while foreign investment has collapsed. The latest economic reports from last week are dismal, with industrial production dropping 4.6% YOY vs. the average expectation of 1%. And with Argentina's key customer Brazil slowing as well, there is little chance of a rebound.

Argentina Industrial Production (YOY)

Sonntag, 24. Juni 2012

jede Menge von Fällen vs Argy/Congo....zu pari passu und unbedienten Bonds

http://www.emta.org/template.aspx?id=2291

List of Cases

Achtung!! stille Mitglieder der ABDRECO-Sammelklage bitte meldet euch bei mir

es gibt wichtige dinge zu besprechen....

bitte melden an

rolfjkoch@web.de

Tel 06151 14 77 94

Fax 06151 14 53 52

Samstag, 23. Juni 2012

Edge of Reason: Paripassupalooza on Capitol Hill

posted by Anna Gelpern

Like the rest of us, the U.S. Congress cannot wait until the Second Circuit argument on pari passu, now scheduled for June 20th. Unlike the rest of us, the U.S. Congress can do something about it -- and it is.
This Thursday, the House Financial Services Committee is holding hearings on how the Obama Administration is mean to investors, with the U.S. brief in the pari passu litigation as one of three case studies, apparently on par with the mortgage settlement and the auto bailout. Adam and Stephen are both testifying, along with David Skeel and Ted Olson, who happens to represent the creditors in the Argentina litigation (lawyers for Argentina are not on the program).
While people might differ on the merits of all three cases, sticking the pari passu filling in the bankruptcy sandwich strikes me as rather loopy, not least because the U.S. brief this time is a carbon copy of the Bush Administration brief in 2004 on the same issue. (Meanwhile, the Obama Administration slapped trade sanctions on Argentina for ignoring investor arbitration awards.) Maybe they were going for the consumer-corporate-sovereign bankruptcy tour d'horizon effect, but the result is a mashup of apples, oranges, and green lizards.
On the merits, if they do spend any time on Argentina, I expect a replay of the flat-wrong argument that Collective Action Clauses somehow make the pari passu issue go away. The fact that Greece promptly paid its holdouts despite having the most favorable CACs ever is a case in point. I also worry about the hearings getting diverted into the totally intederminate and therefore massively manipulative debate about the meaning of pari passu. The crux of the controversy is not whether Argentina breached a covenant, but rather, whether pari passu can be the basis for a worldwide injunction. This is just too weedy to get straight in a hearing of this sort.
Then again, if anyone really cared about investors in foreign sovereign debt, they would be talking about sovereign immunity and sovereign bankruptcy, not pari passu. As these things go, we are more likely to double down on the crazy of the pari passu clause with a pari passu statute. Now that's a party I would not miss.

June 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM in Sovereign Debt

http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2012/06/edge-of-reason-paripassupalooza-on-capitol-hill.html

Freitag, 22. Juni 2012

knickt argy jetzt ein und zahlt urteile !?!? / The government tries to agree on payment of decisions in favor of U.S. firms

The government tries to agree on payment of decisions in favor of U.S. firms
Clarin
June 21, 2012
By Ana Baron

Azurix and Blueridge have sentences in their favor for US$400 million at ICSID

The government of Cristina Fern ndez Kirchner began talks with two U.S. companies, Azurix and Blueridge, to pay them on the rulings handed down in their favor at ICSID. The payment of those rulings would allow Argentina to again access the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences from which it was expelled over having that debt pending.

A source confirmed to Clarin that Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino and representatives of the two companies are negotiating an accord over how to make the payment of the two rulings outside of the ICSID that would satisfy both parties.

From the beginning the government always said it wanted to pay the rulings. But the problem is that it insists that according to Article 54 of the ICSID charter, the two companies have to go through Argentine courts to be able to collect.

The companies turn to Article 54 to say that this is not necessary, that the rulings are to be automatically paid. The United States has taken their side.

What is in play is not a small amount of cash. It's an amount of around US$400 million. Whatever path is chosen to pay it will set a precedent. There is another company that obtained a ruling in its favor at ICSID Saur and according to reports, they are about to announce a ruling in favor of the French company, EDF.

A source that is following closely the discussions told Clarin that an agreement outside of ICSID is on the table. That is to say, in exchange for the companies renouncing the rulings, handed down in their favor, the government would pay the debt directly, with money or some other time of deal, but without them having to go before Argentine courts.

It appears that Cristina Kirchner, Legal and Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini and Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino discussed various alternatives in New York. One of the sources consulted by Clarin said that Argentina wants to solve this problem because it's one of the issues that is most feeding anti-Argentine opinions that are being observed currently in Washington and at the global level.

It escapes no one in the U.S. capital that the Argentine embassy has launched a campaign to reverse the offensive set forth by the vulture funds against our country in the U.S. Congress and in the headquarters of the government of Barack Obama. To resolve the payment of the rulings to Azurix and Blueridge would favor the embassy's work and help improve Argentina's image in Washington.

It would also be very positive for the negotiations with the Paris Club and even Argentina's relations with the IMF where its board criticizes the fact that Argentina is not complying with the annual review of its accounts set forth in Article IV of the IMF charter, and the lack of progress on the normalization of the statistics at INDEC.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already said that if Argentina doesn't show, by September, that it is working on creating a new national price index, there will be a motion of censure. That would be the first step in a long process that the IMF uses to expel a country for not providing reliable data.

Nobody expected a rapid conclusion of negotiations with Azurix and Blueridge. In fact these two companies want cash, but it will be difficult to determine the amount that they are willing to accept in exchange for renouncing the rulings.

The U.S. position in their favor gives the two companies some heft in the negotiations that they wouldn't have had any other way.

Dienstag, 19. Juni 2012

Lorenzino: el país no cederá ante los bonistas en default

Encuentro en Washington
Lorenzino: el país no cederá ante los bonistas en default
El ministro advirtió que pagarles a los que quedaron fuera del canje de deuda "no es justo"
W ASHINGTON (De nuestra corresponsal).- El ministro de Economía, Hernán Lorenzino,
se sumó a la tesis de que la Argentina "es blanco de los fondos buitres" que operan en
el Congreso norteamericano, pero aseguró que el Gobierno "no cederá" a las
presiones de los inversores que rechazaron el canje de deuda, porque pagarles "no es
justo".
Más en lo doméstico, el funcionarlo ratificó que el país "tendrá un nuevo índice de inflación” a partir
del año próximo, tal como se acordó con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), organismo que instó
a tener definiciones al respecto no más allá de septiembre próximo.
Lorenzino pasó fugazmente por esta ciudad para presentar "el primer libro" que compila la caída en
default de 2001 "contado desde el lado de la Argentina".
Se trata de La Argentina y el default de 2001, mitos y realidades, un trabajo elaborado por la
embajada en Washington, a cargo de Jorge Argüello, y que el ministro agradeció y ponderó como una
"herramienta fundamental".
Más de 200 personas, convocadas por Invitación "personal e intransferible", sortearon el control para
colmar los salones de la embajada. Salvo el "buenas noches a todos y a todas", todo transcurrió en
inglés. Asistieron funcionarios argentinos, académicos, miembros de ONG, estudiantes y un puñado
de asesores del Capitolio.
Entre ellos, la diputada demócrata por California Judy Chu, quien meses atrás se ocupó del país al
celebrar que la autoridad comercial norteamericana hubiera incluido a la feria de La Salada en una
"lista negra" del fraude comercial. También estuvieron los demócratas Charles Schumer, de Nueva
York, y James Glyburn, de Carolina del Sur.
No hubo señal de ninguno de los legisladores norteamericanos que más activamente promueven
sanciones contra el país y que, tal como reveló LA NACION, días atrás ironizaron con la idea de que,
más que en la embajada, Lorenzino debería dar explicaciones en el Congreso.
SIN LUGAR PARA CRÍTICAS
"Es impresionante el poder que tiene el lobby de los fondos buitres, que hasta montan sesiones en el
Congreso norteamericano", retribuyó el ministro. "Llevan más de una década perdiendo dinero en sus
litigios contra el país y en todo ese tiempo no han logrado un centavo", subrayó, luego de afirmar que
no se pagarán sus reclamos porque hacerlo "no es justo".
Poco antes, el economista Mark Weisbrot, del Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), se
sumó a la línea del Nobel Paul Krugman, en el sentido de que el caso de la Argentina "es una historia
de éxito, por donde se la mire", mientras que Eric Le Conte, de la ONG Jubilee, apuntó a la
"responsabilidad" de quienes prestan dinero.
Al abrir la sesión, Argüello recordó que el país "jamás repudió su deuda" y que, lejos de entorpecer
acuerdos con los acreedores, "ha dejado de ser parte del problema para pasar a serlo de la solución".
El diplomático lleva adelante una activa campaña para "desterrar falsedades" en la información local
sobre la Argentina y el texto presentado se inscribe en ese esfuerzo. El debate se prolongó en un
cóctel del que los asistentes partieron con el nuevo texto bajo el brazo.
El ministro de Economía, entre tanto, partió hacia Nueva York para sumarse a la comitiva que espera
a la presidenta Cristina Kirchner. Los detalles de su agenda no se informaron,

Montag, 18. Juni 2012

A key hearing is coming on debt claims

Clarin

A key hearing is coming on debt claims

Sunday, June 17, 2012

By Ana Baron

U.S. judiciary decides if the bondholders have to be paid outside the swap.

“Tango” A parody of Cristina and Hugo Chavez by the U.S. bondholders

In Times Square. Signs up on the traditional New York street with complaints from the vulture funds against Argentina, last Friday.

The vulture funds welcomed Cristina Kirchner in New York – the President leaves the city this afternoon – with an enormous sign placed in the heart of Times Square where she was seen dancing the tango and whose main message was that Argentina should be expelled from the G-20.

All the experts consulted by Clarin said that no member country of the G-20 is thinking of taking away Argentina’s membership. The vulture funds will fail in their campaign to achieve this goal. But nobody rules out, however, that they could have more success next Wednesday during a hearing in the Court of Appeals that will be key.

What is in play is a ruling by Judge Griesa from April that found that when the Argentine government makes the next payment to the bondholders that entered the swap, they’ll have to share the payment with the vulture funds.

Argentina appealed this ruling. But if the court doesn’t reverse it, the two swaps held by the government could be thrown out of joint.

According to Griesa’s ruling, those charged with making the payment to bondholders that entered the swap and the vulture funds will be the international banks that normally pay the installments. And if for example Deutsche Bank refuses to split the money with the vulture funds, they could be sued.

The White House sent a letter to the Appeals court supporting Argentina’s position, saying that if this ruling is not reversed “one creditor alone could unravel the instrumentation of a plan to restructure debt that has international support,” and that would harm “U.S. foreign policy interests.”

Experts believe that the court’s decision will be key because it will set a precedent. In April, Judge Griesa decided that the vulture funds should get 50% of the payments that the Argentine government gives to the bondholders that entered the swap. Griesa interpreted the pari passu clause that the Argentine bond contracts contain as equivalent to the so-called “sharing clause” that determines that all have to share payments.

During a hearing of the Congress’ Financial Services Committee, Ted Olsen, attorney for one of the vulture funds, NML, unveiled the strategy that will be on display during the court hearing. In his presentation, Olsen strongly criticized the White House for having sent a letter in support of Argentina’s position. He argued that the Obama government cannot help a country that doesn’t pay its debts nor respects rulings of U.S. and international courts.

So things will be tense during Wednesday’s hearing. What is in play is not only a legal principle but the relative strength between Argentina and the vulture funds.

The government will seduce the bondholders

La Nacion

The government will seduce the bondholders

Monday, June 18, 2012

By Martin Dinatale

Perhaps due to the avalanche of discomfort that is coming from the U.S. business world or, maybe, as a preventative tactic before an eventual chain-reaction from the world crisis, before leaving for the G-20 summit in Mexico, Cristina Kirchner gave an order to her ministers and diplomats yesterday in this city: “to completely rebuild” relations with the United States.

The strategy to rebuild relations with Washington covers various axes. The newest one is the intention of the President to re-establish a dialogue with the bondholders subject to the vulture funds and, eventually, show them there is an intention by the government to go back and negotiation a payment on that debt, which today comes to US$6.8 billion. It’s estimated that half of that debt would be in the hands of the vulture funds, of which Dart, Elliott and NML are the main ones.

The other plans for “clearing up the clouds” with Washington, as the president likes to say, has to do with moving ahead on agreements with the oil sector to add them as partners in YPF and the chance of getting a commitment from the White House to lift the barriers on imports of beef and lemons from Argentina.

"It’s clear that the bondholders won’t get anywhere with pressure and that they will have to listen. But it’s likely that now would be the time to reopen negotiations to eventually head towards an agreement,” two qualified government sources that were in the presidential party which defended the Malvinas cause in this city before the UN, to LA NACION.

In fact, before leaving for Mexico, Cristina Kirchner spent all afternoon on Saturday shut in to the 54th floor of the Hotel Mandarin in Manhattan, together with Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino; Legal and Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini; Foreign Minister Hector Timerman and Argentina’s ambassador in the United States, Jorge Arguello, to move forward with the legal scheme that would allow for opening the door for a renegotiation with the bondholders.

To resume the dialogue with the American bondholders that today are subject to the investment vulture funds will not be an easy task because there are lawsuits pending and precedents of rejecting a proposal with a debt haircut. But it would seem that the President’s intention is to make an attempt and so she ordered as much her officials.

During the government of Nestor Kirchner a payment proposal was rejected that was made to the bondholders and, since then, everything has been tied up in the courts. But this is no longer the days of Nestorism, and the world changed with the 2008 crisis.

The vulture funds

Among other things, the President saw in raw terms during her brief stay in New York that the Task Force group that is made up of the vulture funds are much more powerful than she thought. They have a big influence not only in the American Congress but also among the business community. Also, today they represent a real barrier for Argentina when asking for credits. For their lawsuits, risk agencies still have the country in the default category. For internal policy, the judicial rulings for these funds have generated problems for Cristina Kirchner’s administration in paying salaries for diplomats abroad or the freezing of accounts.

In her message to the American businessmen that met at the Council of the Americas, the President gave some signs of wanting to rebuild this situation. Like when she said: “This year the debt on the Boden 2012 will be paid and next year will be more even on the debt issue.” Will that mean that the year in between could be the year for negotiations with the bondholders? Or did she simply try to calm the disquieted companies over the course of the Argentine economy?

The president acknowledged before her intimate circle that to unblock the debt with the bondholders would be key to overcoming the trade barriers with the United States, where, according to what the president herself acknowledged Argentine beef has not entered for more than 10 years. It would also be a door through which the American companies Exxon, Conocco and Chevron could enter the Argentine oil market, who already have had dialogue with the government to join, eventually, as partners of YPF in the Vaca Muerte deposit.

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