We do not expect the government to tap the external bond markets in 2012 or to negotiate with holdout bondholders

In the coming months, the government may seek to normalize relations with
official and some private creditors. We still think that the government will seek a
resolution of the country’s debt arrears with the Paris Club. We expect that the
government and its bilateral creditors will manage to narrow the gap between the
rescheduling terms proposed by Argentina and the Paris Club (the debt in arrears
amounts to about $9bn) and think there is a good chance that an accord will be
announced later this year, which may unlock bilateral financing. We also think the
government may try to settle the awards granted by the ICSID, as the non-payment of
these claims could result in the US suspending trade benefits for Argentina under the
Generalized System of Preferences program. We do not expect the government to tap
the external bond markets in 2012 or to negotiate with holdout bondholders.

14.3.2012

Carola Sandy
+1 212 325 2471
carola.sandy@credit-suisse.com